So I’ve been getting a lot of flack from my Republican friends lately about being a Democrat. They keep telling me how the bloodbath Hillary and Obama are going through is weakening the Democratic base and turning the entire election on its head. One of the things that I keep figuring out about political operatives in this country is that they are both masters of public relations and perception of issues among both of the bases.
What I find even more interesting is that I am the only one that seems to have a unique perspective on these issues. A lot of people seem to think I am completely crazy, but others often hear my perspective and it then blows them out of the water. Let’s see if this is one of the later cases instead of the former.
I think it’s important to remember that these people on both sides aren’t stupid. They are political professionals that are able to effectively navigate politics on the national and global scene that understand voter psychology, voting habits, public perception, newsworthiness, media markets and what makes people turn out to vote. These organizations have withstood over 100 years of change and political turmoil. I sincerely doubt they are so stupid they make mistakes like “letting the party fall apart”. So, with these things in mind: From what I can tell, the entire sequence of events in the primaries for the last three months on the Democratic side have been used as a smoke and mirror show to dominate media coverage (for free, no less) and obtain a very large amount of voter participation from both new democrats and their existing base. Additionally, the conflict between Obama and Hilary has been extended for the last two months for two very important reasons:
1) The democrats are doing absolutely everything they can to piss off their base in both Michigan and Florida. These are two very important states to the Democrats and they cannot win without either state. So, what’s the absolutely best way to get people talking about their parties nominee and to motivate people to vote? Piss them off, make the vocal ones complain for awhile, and give them exactly what they want after threatening to take it away. This is Politics 101 – motivate your base, get people talking about you via Word of mouth, and control media attention by creating interesting spectacles to watch. DUH!
They are already doing this now by threatening to take away half of their super-delegates. Since this has been in media coverage for weeks now, it’s completely obvious that the leadership will “cave” to the people of Michigan and Florida by allowing them to vote in a special primary election. It shows that these states are important. It motivates the parties political base. It makes the voters look “tough” and save face to the remainder of the nation. It also motivates the base to the point of action. Motivated bases that turn out and vote win elections – plain and simple.
2) Flank McCain. It’s obvious that the Democrats are trying to flank McCain with working class swing state voters on the right with Urban, liberal professionals on the left. By having two candidates presently, they are able to talk out of both sides of their mouth while dominating media coverage.
3) Traditionally, in American politics, he who has the most campaign cash wins, and the majority of a political campaigns contributions go to Television and other media ad buys. With the “chaos” of the left dominating the airways, McCain is already having to burn through campaign cash to stay relevant. That’s going to lead to a cash position advantage in November for the Democrats, when traditionally the Democrats have to do more with less money.
So, with these things in mind, as of May 27th, 2008, I submit the following predictions:
The Democrats will have primaries in both Michigan and in Florida, after the primaries are done in South Dakota and Montana. They will re-instate all of the super-delegate votes after giving voters (and appear to look stern to state-level officials who were in on this all along) not to move primaries again. This will lead to record turn-outs in both states with motivated voters. It will also mean that states that traditionally have been ignored by Democrats (well, let’s be honest, all the red, rural states) suddenly are in play. This means South Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and possibly Texas are now in play. This is VERY good news for Democrats.
However, not to be outwitted, the Republicans aren’t stupid either. They have been doing a few things behind the scenes to garner national attention too. One of the most obvious things I can see is the recent ruling in California that is pro-gay marriage. Despite my obvious positive feelings on the issue, I’m not so naive as to think that on a Supreme Court that had six of the seven judges on it appointed by Republican leaders suddenly decided to be pro-civil rights. On the contrary, the GOP is attempting to motivate it’s rural American, religious, tiny red state base with an Armageddon scenario that it can openly attack during the election. The media is going to be showing thousands of newly wed, happy couples in California for months after the ruling. For the GOP base, the message is clear: “Vote for us, or the godless faggots will move next to your house, give your kids AIDS, cause a complete collapse of the family, critique your home décor, and destroy “values” unless you go Republican”. This is great news for those trying to motivate the GOP base. But I have to say, as a gay man myself, I’m really tired of the right wing using people like me as a punching bag to motivate its base. We’ve seen these tricks in 2004. Here we are again…
The Republicans have also tried to bury John McCains health issues by letting them loose to the media for three hours before memorial day weekend. The obvious benefit to this is nobody is watching the national evening news on Friday, it makes the Democrats look spineless for attacking on a buried issue, and lets McCain look like a virulent military leader who can lead us to victory in Iraq to the GOP base.
So, in short, this is business as usual. Usually around the 4th of July is when the gloves start to come off, and we all start to rally around a bunch of issues that do nothing to move us forward as a nation or assist in really solving our issues. I have yet to hear either side really come up with an energy plan that makes sense for the next 50 years. Neither side has offered a comprehensive approach to the aging infrastructure America faces. Nobody has really pointed out that we now have the most under-employed high-skills workforce in the world. Nobody has mentioned that the Sure, the Government statistics point to low employment, but I am an MBA holder that’s been out of work for 18 months. I still don’t have any hope of Social Security. My grandparents are in nursing homes and each use over $10,000 a month of tax dollars for their meds and nursing home care. If I find a guy I like and decide to adopt kids, I might not be able to make sure they get health insurance through my workplace because I like dudes instead of chicks. I still can’t serve in our military – I guess I don’t understand what liking dudes has to being able to hold a gun, take orders, and wear a uniform.
Finally, Obama is obviously the nominee, and Hilary is obviously the VP. They need both to rally the party, they must get the working class, minority voters.
Here’s to hoping that we actually have some progress forward the next 4 years.
- Brad
Soap Box:
============
I really do think it’s time for a Democrat now. The Republicans have had 8 years to screw up the country. Now it’s our turn! Here’s what we can look forward to:
- Higher taxes on the rich to pay for all of the stressed and antiquated/failing transportation, electrical and water infrastructure. It doesn’t matter that publically regulated corporations have been charging customers to maintain that infrastructure, but have instead used the funds to take profits year over year. The Dems will scream “Governmental regulation”!, the Reps will scream “let markets solve the problem”. Taxpayers will pay for the infrastructure repairs once on their Utility bills, and again on their taxes. The politicos will look aggressive by slapping a few golden-parachuted utility executives with Club Med Prision. The Dems will look like tax and spend liberals for trying to solve the problem. The Reps will look like crusaders fighting for the working man while simultaneously making the Dems look stupid. We’re screwed. The first rule of Government spending is: “Why do something right once when we can spend five times as much and screw it up at least three times”? Reference: Rural Electrification Project, 1970’s America energy policy, and Albuquerque’s “Big-I” project.
- A completely screwed up energy plan. No doubt that the reps are going to push for clean coal and nuclear energy as the solutions. Dems are going to push green technology. The Dems will push for alternative energy subsidies and the reps will scream for Tax cuts to the energy companies to “encourage investment”. On this one, I simply cannot comprehend why Exxon, ConocoPhillips or the other major companies can be among the most profitable corporations on the planet yet are so beleaguered with taxes that they need taxpayer money to drill more oil.
- Another screw up with health care.
Oh the possibilities! I’ll skip this one for the sake of brevity.
- Sadly: Another election that allows our leadership to marginalize distinct groups of people, makes us look stupid, keeps the truth buried to keep polls high, and focuses energy on smoke and mirrors instead of solving issues.
I think we deserve better as Americans. But I have to say, we’ve been on the wrong course for about 30 years now. Why can’t we seem to move forward at all anymore as a nation?
Thursday, May 29, 2008
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
New reasons to despise HR professionals
In my young age of 26 I find myself going on a variety of interviews once again looking for an employment opportunity. I just finished a three year stint at m first job after college and it is time to once again start looking for the next big step on the career ladder.
This time around, things are a little different. I'm not willing to just take any opportunity that opens itself up to me simply because I need a job. I'm not interested in clobbering my fellow co-workers over the head in a hyper-competitive workplace. I feel no desire whatsoever to have an "admirable" job like a banker, doctor or attorney. This time, I find myself looking for a job that I just don't hate doing everyday. I'm perfectly aware that there is indeed a reason that jobs are called work - and that's fine. I don't mind work - I mind work where the people are completely miserable human beings that simply pray everyday for their job or life to end. I mind when my superiors lie, cheat, steal and make me look stupid when they should be held accountable for what they did. I also mind when they soak up all of the glory for my hard work.
So, after considering my options carefully, here's what I've been able to narrow down:
Here's what I won't do:
- No Sales.
- No Food Service
- No Retail
- I will NEVER take a job for less than $14 an hour.
- No data entry
- Absolutely no suit or tie. I burned my last suit. Never again. ( I don't mind business casual)
- No big commute. 45 minutes each day is too hard on my car and me.
- No call centers
Here's what I will do:
- Interaction with people beyond basic "Hi" and "Sales needs" conversations
- I don't mind customer facing jobs.
- Form a field of expertise that allows me to develop a niche.
- Public Dialog where I'm approached with respect and dignity - no "fuck you because you did your job" scratching post spot.
- Gently push me forward to do better everyday. Don't kick me when I'm down, but don't stop kicking me when I am up either.
- Co-workers that give a damn about me, and that are worth giving a damn about back (which I had at my previous spot)
- A sense of success or project completion - no "repetitive churn" positions.
- Finally, let me have a stake in the business after I have earned it.
I think HR professionals have likely forgotten that they serve as ambassadors for their companies and instead have gotten themselves into being compliance officers bothered with prospective job applicants. So, without further ado, here's the most recent "greatest hits" section of my Blog. It contains HR sins, and companies I have personally had the pleasure of interacting with that have committed these atorocities.)
Well, despite these desires and needs, most job hunters absolutely despise HR professionals for the following reasons:
- No recognition of the time it took to craft a Resume / No Thank You Letter for the application (Wells Fargo, IBM, Equity Partners Real Estate, BNSF, Southwest Airlines, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Humana and Bank of America)
- No Bait and Swap. If I apply for a certain position, don't call me and offer me a chump change sales position without even bothering to talk to me about the job I actually want. If the job was filled, fine. Consider me for an equivalent position with equal rsponsibility and stature. Don't offer me the McJob because the real job was filled. (Bank of America, Kelly Services, ManPower, Simpson Property Group, Comcast, PNM)
- Piss Poor Follow-Up on Job Postings. I've had HR professionals call me THREE MONTHS after I post a Resume. (Eclipse Aviation, Intel, Wells Fargo, Bank of America)
- Fake salary promises. Don't promise $35-50K in a posting then offer someone $19K after they go through an arduous, three stage interview process. I work for money. If you want a chunp that works for free, consider Mexicans / Illegal immigrants / Slaves (Virtually All)
- Don't disappear after an interview. If I wasn't qualified, fine. If you think someone else can do the job better, fine. But don't give me a bullshit "even though your job skills were impressive, BLAH BLAH BLAH dear John crap. Tell me how I can improve, what skills I need to obtain, what education I lack, or simply that you're cheap and I want too much money. You really are going to do me a favor. (Schwabb)
"HR resonse: But Brad, we could be sued for discrimination!"
My response: discrimination/unethical behavior is keeping job seekers hungry and desperate and feeling like failures when they have no reason to feel that way. I'll respect you more if you actually give me a reason to do so. Keep in mind your job seekers may also be your future customers. I had a company I interviewed with turn me down with no response that later bid for a project my company was offering. I vetoed a $160 Million dollar project with the firm because of how I was treated at the interview, even though it cost my company an extra $3 Million to go with someone else. (BNSF)
- Fear of mentorship, HR exec: "My god, you've been in the workforce for THREE WHOLE YEARS and you aren't the chief executive officer of the company you left? GASP!" Yes, Fucktard. Believe it or not, I don't know everything. I do actually want a job where I can learn something. Is it so shocking that I'm not attune to your exact industry needs, norms and desires THREE YEARS out of college? You are probably my senior by 20 years and you're stuck in a dead-in HR gig. Who the hell are you to judge me when you are 20+ years my senior and I'm applying for an equivalent salary band job that you are in now?
(VERY prominent at sales culture firms: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Schwabb, Scott trade)
- Endless Web forms for Resumes: I do actually want you to LOOK at my Resume instead of entering a boolean search into a database. How do I know what exact search term you're going to use for a City Planner? Or Director of Finance? At least look at the pretty paper I send.... (All)
- Resumes. Bullshit to read. Bullshit to make. Bullshit to keyword. Bullshit to format - it's all in the air these days with expectations. If you really wanted to know me and my personality, how about having a cocktail with me and actually getting me as a person? (all)
This time around, things are a little different. I'm not willing to just take any opportunity that opens itself up to me simply because I need a job. I'm not interested in clobbering my fellow co-workers over the head in a hyper-competitive workplace. I feel no desire whatsoever to have an "admirable" job like a banker, doctor or attorney. This time, I find myself looking for a job that I just don't hate doing everyday. I'm perfectly aware that there is indeed a reason that jobs are called work - and that's fine. I don't mind work - I mind work where the people are completely miserable human beings that simply pray everyday for their job or life to end. I mind when my superiors lie, cheat, steal and make me look stupid when they should be held accountable for what they did. I also mind when they soak up all of the glory for my hard work.
So, after considering my options carefully, here's what I've been able to narrow down:
Here's what I won't do:
- No Sales.
- No Food Service
- No Retail
- I will NEVER take a job for less than $14 an hour.
- No data entry
- Absolutely no suit or tie. I burned my last suit. Never again. ( I don't mind business casual)
- No big commute. 45 minutes each day is too hard on my car and me.
- No call centers
Here's what I will do:
- Interaction with people beyond basic "Hi" and "Sales needs" conversations
- I don't mind customer facing jobs.
- Form a field of expertise that allows me to develop a niche.
- Public Dialog where I'm approached with respect and dignity - no "fuck you because you did your job" scratching post spot.
- Gently push me forward to do better everyday. Don't kick me when I'm down, but don't stop kicking me when I am up either.
- Co-workers that give a damn about me, and that are worth giving a damn about back (which I had at my previous spot)
- A sense of success or project completion - no "repetitive churn" positions.
- Finally, let me have a stake in the business after I have earned it.
I think HR professionals have likely forgotten that they serve as ambassadors for their companies and instead have gotten themselves into being compliance officers bothered with prospective job applicants. So, without further ado, here's the most recent "greatest hits" section of my Blog. It contains HR sins, and companies I have personally had the pleasure of interacting with that have committed these atorocities.)
Well, despite these desires and needs, most job hunters absolutely despise HR professionals for the following reasons:
- No recognition of the time it took to craft a Resume / No Thank You Letter for the application (Wells Fargo, IBM, Equity Partners Real Estate, BNSF, Southwest Airlines, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Humana and Bank of America)
- No Bait and Swap. If I apply for a certain position, don't call me and offer me a chump change sales position without even bothering to talk to me about the job I actually want. If the job was filled, fine. Consider me for an equivalent position with equal rsponsibility and stature. Don't offer me the McJob because the real job was filled. (Bank of America, Kelly Services, ManPower, Simpson Property Group, Comcast, PNM)
- Piss Poor Follow-Up on Job Postings. I've had HR professionals call me THREE MONTHS after I post a Resume. (Eclipse Aviation, Intel, Wells Fargo, Bank of America)
- Fake salary promises. Don't promise $35-50K in a posting then offer someone $19K after they go through an arduous, three stage interview process. I work for money. If you want a chunp that works for free, consider Mexicans / Illegal immigrants / Slaves (Virtually All)
- Don't disappear after an interview. If I wasn't qualified, fine. If you think someone else can do the job better, fine. But don't give me a bullshit "even though your job skills were impressive, BLAH BLAH BLAH dear John crap. Tell me how I can improve, what skills I need to obtain, what education I lack, or simply that you're cheap and I want too much money. You really are going to do me a favor. (Schwabb)
"HR resonse: But Brad, we could be sued for discrimination!"
My response: discrimination/unethical behavior is keeping job seekers hungry and desperate and feeling like failures when they have no reason to feel that way. I'll respect you more if you actually give me a reason to do so. Keep in mind your job seekers may also be your future customers. I had a company I interviewed with turn me down with no response that later bid for a project my company was offering. I vetoed a $160 Million dollar project with the firm because of how I was treated at the interview, even though it cost my company an extra $3 Million to go with someone else. (BNSF)
- Fear of mentorship, HR exec: "My god, you've been in the workforce for THREE WHOLE YEARS and you aren't the chief executive officer of the company you left? GASP!" Yes, Fucktard. Believe it or not, I don't know everything. I do actually want a job where I can learn something. Is it so shocking that I'm not attune to your exact industry needs, norms and desires THREE YEARS out of college? You are probably my senior by 20 years and you're stuck in a dead-in HR gig. Who the hell are you to judge me when you are 20+ years my senior and I'm applying for an equivalent salary band job that you are in now?
(VERY prominent at sales culture firms: Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Schwabb, Scott trade)
- Endless Web forms for Resumes: I do actually want you to LOOK at my Resume instead of entering a boolean search into a database. How do I know what exact search term you're going to use for a City Planner? Or Director of Finance? At least look at the pretty paper I send.... (All)
- Resumes. Bullshit to read. Bullshit to make. Bullshit to keyword. Bullshit to format - it's all in the air these days with expectations. If you really wanted to know me and my personality, how about having a cocktail with me and actually getting me as a person? (all)
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Thoughts on Market Based Medicine
Lately I've become really tired of the constant onslaught of fear based politics of the right wing of Government sponsored Healthcare in the United States. I had a recent epiphany of the medical care system that I think really sums up the overall experience of market based medicine in a nutshell.
Well, the epiphany came about based on a recent experience a friend of mine had. You see, apparently while driving down the freeway at 50 miles per hour with ones arm out the window has the tendency, or possibility to - well - be ripped off my large metalic objects one tends to pass on the freeway - that is - other cars driving too close to ones own.
Well, according to market based philosophy: Whenever one needs a good or service, it is ones responsibility to become aware of the multitude of options available to you, compare the different benefits, drawbacks and prices available, and them come to a rational conclusion.
Well, the trouble is, when one has their arm severed from their Torso, or they suffer from a stroke or heart attack, or encounter another issue requiring immediate medical attention market-based rationality goes completely out of the window. It is completely illogical and life threatening to call emergency rooms to shop for the best facilities, the lowest cost, and the availability of options. The reality is that the most logical option is to go to the nearest available facility able to save your life and get there with the utmost haste.
Obviously, any rational individual wouldn't be willing to risk their life to drive to another hospital down the road because of the urgency of the needed medical care. I'm also hard pressed to imagine that my same friend with the severed arm would be willing to sit down with a phone book, and one arm, to telephone each of the competing area hospitals to determine the best option available to him.
Well, this leads to quite the paradox: Each consumer only has one readily available option to them in an emergency situation: the closest medical facility. This puts the medical facility in a very enviable position: they get to determine exactly how much your life is worth. They are just as easily able to charge $10,000 as they are $10 Million dollars for the medical care that you receive. Your options are to either accept the medical care cost, or die. Clearly the best soluion is to accept whatever price is offered. Thus, in the absence of rational consumers able to make choices, markets simply don't work for emergency medicine.
But do they work for other areas of medicine too? No. Let me explain.
Well, I recently had a medical situation hat required me to see a dertmatologist in the Oklahoma City area. (I live in Albuquerque). I tried to work with my insurance company to find a local provider of dermatology services, and discovered that the average wait time to obtain this care is about 5 months here. Fearing I would need to suffer needlessly, and the opportunity to interview with a company in Oklahoma City led me to leave the Albuquerque area and visit a dermatologist while I was there.
I called a dermatologist there that was recommended by my insurance company and booked an appointment to see them. I made it to the dermatologist with only one weeks advance notice, asked a plethora of questions and got the prescriptions I needed without a problem. The real trouble began when my insurance company found out I went to a provider that was out of state but was IN the insurance companies out-of-state approved provider list. Today I received a letter (05/17/2008) stating that I could be billed for over $800 in services rendered by the dermatologist despite going out of my way to find an approved vendor by my insurance company. So, it seems the market has yielded two different choices: Pay $650 in health premiums and wait 5 months for service from a dermatologist, OR, Travel out of state, pay $200 in gasoline, $100 for a hotel room, $100 for restaurant food, and another $800 for dermatologist appointment ($1200) for a lousy dermatology appointment.
So, if the market doesn't work for emergency services, doesn't work for routine medical care, keeps people away from their doctors and specialists so they cannot receive medical care, why bother paying any health premiums at all?
The kicker here is if I were an illegal immigrant I would have received all the above medical services for free. Why bother doing the right thing?
Well, the epiphany came about based on a recent experience a friend of mine had. You see, apparently while driving down the freeway at 50 miles per hour with ones arm out the window has the tendency, or possibility to - well - be ripped off my large metalic objects one tends to pass on the freeway - that is - other cars driving too close to ones own.
Well, according to market based philosophy: Whenever one needs a good or service, it is ones responsibility to become aware of the multitude of options available to you, compare the different benefits, drawbacks and prices available, and them come to a rational conclusion.
Well, the trouble is, when one has their arm severed from their Torso, or they suffer from a stroke or heart attack, or encounter another issue requiring immediate medical attention market-based rationality goes completely out of the window. It is completely illogical and life threatening to call emergency rooms to shop for the best facilities, the lowest cost, and the availability of options. The reality is that the most logical option is to go to the nearest available facility able to save your life and get there with the utmost haste.
Obviously, any rational individual wouldn't be willing to risk their life to drive to another hospital down the road because of the urgency of the needed medical care. I'm also hard pressed to imagine that my same friend with the severed arm would be willing to sit down with a phone book, and one arm, to telephone each of the competing area hospitals to determine the best option available to him.
Well, this leads to quite the paradox: Each consumer only has one readily available option to them in an emergency situation: the closest medical facility. This puts the medical facility in a very enviable position: they get to determine exactly how much your life is worth. They are just as easily able to charge $10,000 as they are $10 Million dollars for the medical care that you receive. Your options are to either accept the medical care cost, or die. Clearly the best soluion is to accept whatever price is offered. Thus, in the absence of rational consumers able to make choices, markets simply don't work for emergency medicine.
But do they work for other areas of medicine too? No. Let me explain.
Well, I recently had a medical situation hat required me to see a dertmatologist in the Oklahoma City area. (I live in Albuquerque). I tried to work with my insurance company to find a local provider of dermatology services, and discovered that the average wait time to obtain this care is about 5 months here. Fearing I would need to suffer needlessly, and the opportunity to interview with a company in Oklahoma City led me to leave the Albuquerque area and visit a dermatologist while I was there.
I called a dermatologist there that was recommended by my insurance company and booked an appointment to see them. I made it to the dermatologist with only one weeks advance notice, asked a plethora of questions and got the prescriptions I needed without a problem. The real trouble began when my insurance company found out I went to a provider that was out of state but was IN the insurance companies out-of-state approved provider list. Today I received a letter (05/17/2008) stating that I could be billed for over $800 in services rendered by the dermatologist despite going out of my way to find an approved vendor by my insurance company. So, it seems the market has yielded two different choices: Pay $650 in health premiums and wait 5 months for service from a dermatologist, OR, Travel out of state, pay $200 in gasoline, $100 for a hotel room, $100 for restaurant food, and another $800 for dermatologist appointment ($1200) for a lousy dermatology appointment.
So, if the market doesn't work for emergency services, doesn't work for routine medical care, keeps people away from their doctors and specialists so they cannot receive medical care, why bother paying any health premiums at all?
The kicker here is if I were an illegal immigrant I would have received all the above medical services for free. Why bother doing the right thing?
The Housing Mess and 20-somethings
Sometimes I feel like I am surrounded by such stupidity in the common mainstream media that I want to barf all over my television when I see a report from the likes of Dateline or CNN.
I read an article about the housing crunch and why now is the time to invest in housing - and that the housing crisis has passed and that things have gotten a lot better. I chucked my fourth cup of Ramen noodles this week at my TV, livid and angry about the complete lack of understanding that the media seems to have about 20-somethings and the challenges we're facing at the moment.
I realize that the situation isn't as bad for others as it is for me. I was laid off in March of 2007 and STILL have not been able to fund a job that has paid the same amount of money or used the skill sets that I gained from my previous position. It's been 14 months since I was laid off. I've since moved back in with my parents. I'm a few months behind on all of my credit cards. My finance company is threatening to take my car. I lied on an application at a Subway restaurant and ignored the fact I have a Bachelors degree simply to get some income. I submitted the paperwork to file for bankruptcy last week. - I'm only 26 years old and I have over $195,000 in debt from college, my car, and credit card debt.
Igoring all of these factors, and the fact that a lot of 20-somethings are in the same situation that I am in, Maybe the best way to explain my disgust is to explain how I perceive the housing cycle, and then to further explain my thoughts on it. I am readily willing to admit I could be completely wrong here, but it seems like people's home buying habits usually follow this path in the United States:
1) Move out from home and get a starter apartment
2) Graduate College / Knock a girl up / Get Married (not necessarily after 1, could be before)
3) Purchase the "starter home", Condo or Townhouse - stretch yourself to the brink to afford this
4) Family Size increases/Lifestlye changes - upgrade home
4a) New Job / Change of Pace / Relocation / Change Lifestlye - Change / Upgrade home
4b) (again) New Job / Change of Pace / Relocation / Change Lifestlye - Change / Upgrade home
5) Kids grow up, empty nest, parents inhabit the nest for awhile
6) Downsize home as couple ages / Retires / Relocates
That means there are 8 possible changes in one persons or couples lifestyle in a lifetime.
Well, if this pattern is correct, that means that the two largest generations in the US: The baby boomers, and the baby boomer echo, are both making moves in the housing markets at the moment. The boomers are getting ready to downsize into more manageable homes as they age and have empty nests, and the echo's are also attempting to get a foothold into the market.
I know a lot of couples who devote 100% of one partners income into housing. I also know a lot of other people who have teamed up with three of their closest friends to purchase a house to gain a shared footing. This is the only way that a lot of the echo's are able to afford housing based on their limited salary options. In many areas, like Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco, Austin and Denver, the median home price is in excess of $200,000 for a four bedroom home. Even a more managable three bedroom townhome is running at least $180,000. I simply fail to see how a 20-something making $12 an hour or less is going to be able to afford student loan payments, credit card debt, a car payment and a house on that level of income. Global competition has meant that 20-somethings are facing competition willing to work for 1/6th of the cost of their American counterparts.
I think this leads to a significant irony that we haven't ever really seen in America. I think downsizing homes and having more affordable options is going to be the key for the future. These realizations, along with the fact that the Government is going to expect a 20 something to pay the highest social security taxes in history to support the boomer generation into retirement has led me to believe that the hosuing market will be anemic for some time. The reality is that housing prices are going to have to come down significantly more for my generation to deal with the excess glut of supply on the market. We're also going to need additional income to promote consumer spending that keeps the entire economy afloat.
Boomers hear this: The echo's are broke. We can't help you retire unless we have a roof over our heads.
I read an article about the housing crunch and why now is the time to invest in housing - and that the housing crisis has passed and that things have gotten a lot better. I chucked my fourth cup of Ramen noodles this week at my TV, livid and angry about the complete lack of understanding that the media seems to have about 20-somethings and the challenges we're facing at the moment.
I realize that the situation isn't as bad for others as it is for me. I was laid off in March of 2007 and STILL have not been able to fund a job that has paid the same amount of money or used the skill sets that I gained from my previous position. It's been 14 months since I was laid off. I've since moved back in with my parents. I'm a few months behind on all of my credit cards. My finance company is threatening to take my car. I lied on an application at a Subway restaurant and ignored the fact I have a Bachelors degree simply to get some income. I submitted the paperwork to file for bankruptcy last week. - I'm only 26 years old and I have over $195,000 in debt from college, my car, and credit card debt.
Igoring all of these factors, and the fact that a lot of 20-somethings are in the same situation that I am in, Maybe the best way to explain my disgust is to explain how I perceive the housing cycle, and then to further explain my thoughts on it. I am readily willing to admit I could be completely wrong here, but it seems like people's home buying habits usually follow this path in the United States:
1) Move out from home and get a starter apartment
2) Graduate College / Knock a girl up / Get Married (not necessarily after 1, could be before)
3) Purchase the "starter home", Condo or Townhouse - stretch yourself to the brink to afford this
4) Family Size increases/Lifestlye changes - upgrade home
4a) New Job / Change of Pace / Relocation / Change Lifestlye - Change / Upgrade home
4b) (again) New Job / Change of Pace / Relocation / Change Lifestlye - Change / Upgrade home
5) Kids grow up, empty nest, parents inhabit the nest for awhile
6) Downsize home as couple ages / Retires / Relocates
That means there are 8 possible changes in one persons or couples lifestyle in a lifetime.
Well, if this pattern is correct, that means that the two largest generations in the US: The baby boomers, and the baby boomer echo, are both making moves in the housing markets at the moment. The boomers are getting ready to downsize into more manageable homes as they age and have empty nests, and the echo's are also attempting to get a foothold into the market.
I know a lot of couples who devote 100% of one partners income into housing. I also know a lot of other people who have teamed up with three of their closest friends to purchase a house to gain a shared footing. This is the only way that a lot of the echo's are able to afford housing based on their limited salary options. In many areas, like Miami, Phoenix, San Francisco, Austin and Denver, the median home price is in excess of $200,000 for a four bedroom home. Even a more managable three bedroom townhome is running at least $180,000. I simply fail to see how a 20-something making $12 an hour or less is going to be able to afford student loan payments, credit card debt, a car payment and a house on that level of income. Global competition has meant that 20-somethings are facing competition willing to work for 1/6th of the cost of their American counterparts.
I think this leads to a significant irony that we haven't ever really seen in America. I think downsizing homes and having more affordable options is going to be the key for the future. These realizations, along with the fact that the Government is going to expect a 20 something to pay the highest social security taxes in history to support the boomer generation into retirement has led me to believe that the hosuing market will be anemic for some time. The reality is that housing prices are going to have to come down significantly more for my generation to deal with the excess glut of supply on the market. We're also going to need additional income to promote consumer spending that keeps the entire economy afloat.
Boomers hear this: The echo's are broke. We can't help you retire unless we have a roof over our heads.
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