Brad's a Spy!

So I’ve been getting a lot of flack from my Republican friends lately about being a Democrat. They keep telling me how the bloodbath Hillary and Obama are going through is weakening the Democratic base and turning the entire election on its head. One of the things that I keep figuring out about political operatives in this country is that they are both masters of public relations and perception of issues among both of the bases.
What I find even more interesting is that I am the only one that seems to have a unique perspective on these issues. A lot of people seem to think I am completely crazy, but others often hear my perspective and it then blows them out of the water. Let’s see if this is one of the later cases instead of the former.
I think it’s important to remember that these people on both sides aren’t stupid. They are political professionals that are able to effectively navigate politics on the national and global scene that understand voter psychology, voting habits, public perception, newsworthiness, media markets and what makes people turn out to vote. These organizations have withstood over 100 years of change and political turmoil. I sincerely doubt they are so stupid they make mistakes like “letting the party fall apart”. So, with these things in mind: From what I can tell, the entire sequence of events in the primaries for the last three months on the Democratic side have been used as a smoke and mirror show to dominate media coverage (for free, no less) and obtain a very large amount of voter participation from both new democrats and their existing base. Additionally, the conflict between Obama and Hilary has been extended for the last two months for two very important reasons:

1) The democrats are doing absolutely everything they can to piss off their base in both Michigan and Florida. These are two very important states to the Democrats and they cannot win without either state. So, what’s the absolutely best way to get people talking about their parties nominee and to motivate people to vote? Piss them off, make the vocal ones complain for awhile, and give them exactly what they want after threatening to take it away. This is Politics 101 – motivate your base, get people talking about you via Word of mouth, and control media attention by creating interesting spectacles to watch. DUH!

They are already doing this now by threatening to take away half of their super-delegates. Since this has been in media coverage for weeks now, it’s completely obvious that the leadership will “cave” to the people of Michigan and Florida by allowing them to vote in a special primary election. It shows that these states are important. It motivates the parties political base. It makes the voters look “tough” and save face to the remainder of the nation. It also motivates the base to the point of action. Motivated bases that turn out and vote win elections – plain and simple.
2) Flank McCain. It’s obvious that the Democrats are trying to flank McCain with working class swing state voters on the right with Urban, liberal professionals on the left. By having two candidates presently, they are able to talk out of both sides of their mouth while dominating media coverage.
3) Traditionally, in American politics, he who has the most campaign cash wins, and the majority of a political campaigns contributions go to Television and other media ad buys. With the “chaos” of the left dominating the airways, McCain is already having to burn through campaign cash to stay relevant. That’s going to lead to a cash position advantage in November for the Democrats, when traditionally the Democrats have to do more with less money.
So, with these things in mind, as of May 27th, 2008, I submit the following predictions:
The Democrats will have primaries in both Michigan and in Florida, after the primaries are done in South Dakota and Montana. They will re-instate all of the super-delegate votes after giving voters (and appear to look stern to state-level officials who were in on this all along) not to move primaries again. This will lead to record turn-outs in both states with motivated voters. It will also mean that states that traditionally have been ignored by Democrats (well, let’s be honest, all the red, rural states) suddenly are in play. This means South Carolina, Colorado, Nevada and possibly Texas are now in play. This is VERY good news for Democrats.
However, not to be outwitted, the Republicans aren’t stupid either. They have been doing a few things behind the scenes to garner national attention too. One of the most obvious things I can see is the recent ruling in California that is pro-gay marriage. Despite my obvious positive feelings on the issue, I’m not so naive as to think that on a Supreme Court that had six of the seven judges on it appointed by Republican leaders suddenly decided to be pro-civil rights. On the contrary, the GOP is attempting to motivate it’s rural American, religious, tiny red state base with an Armageddon scenario that it can openly attack during the election. The media is going to be showing thousands of newly wed, happy couples in California for months after the ruling. For the GOP base, the message is clear: “Vote for us, or the godless faggots will move next to your house, give your kids AIDS, cause a complete collapse of the family, critique your home décor, and destroy “values” unless you go Republican”. This is great news for those trying to motivate the GOP base. But I have to say, as a gay man myself, I’m really tired of the right wing using people like me as a punching bag to motivate its base. We’ve seen these tricks in 2004. Here we are again…
The Republicans have also tried to bury John McCains health issues by letting them loose to the media for three hours before memorial day weekend. The obvious benefit to this is nobody is watching the national evening news on Friday, it makes the Democrats look spineless for attacking on a buried issue, and lets McCain look like a virulent military leader who can lead us to victory in Iraq to the GOP base.
So, in short, this is business as usual. Usually around the 4th of July is when the gloves start to come off, and we all start to rally around a bunch of issues that do nothing to move us forward as a nation or assist in really solving our issues. I have yet to hear either side really come up with an energy plan that makes sense for the next 50 years. Neither side has offered a comprehensive approach to the aging infrastructure America faces. Nobody has really pointed out that we now have the most under-employed high-skills workforce in the world. Nobody has mentioned that the Sure, the Government statistics point to low employment, but I am an MBA holder that’s been out of work for 18 months. I still don’t have any hope of Social Security. My grandparents are in nursing homes and each use over $10,000 a month of tax dollars for their meds and nursing home care. If I find a guy I like and decide to adopt kids, I might not be able to make sure they get health insurance through my workplace because I like dudes instead of chicks. I still can’t serve in our military – I guess I don’t understand what liking dudes has to being able to hold a gun, take orders, and wear a uniform.

Finally, Obama is obviously the nominee, and Hilary is obviously the VP. They need both to rally the party, they must get the working class, minority voters.

Here’s to hoping that we actually have some progress forward the next 4 years.

- Brad

Soap Box:
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I really do think it’s time for a Democrat now. The Republicans have had 8 years to screw up the country. Now it’s our turn! Here’s what we can look forward to:

- Higher taxes on the rich to pay for all of the stressed and antiquated/failing transportation, electrical and water infrastructure. It doesn’t matter that publically regulated corporations have been charging customers to maintain that infrastructure, but have instead used the funds to take profits year over year. The Dems will scream “Governmental regulation”!, the Reps will scream “let markets solve the problem”. Taxpayers will pay for the infrastructure repairs once on their Utility bills, and again on their taxes. The politicos will look aggressive by slapping a few golden-parachuted utility executives with Club Med Prision. The Dems will look like tax and spend liberals for trying to solve the problem. The Reps will look like crusaders fighting for the working man while simultaneously making the Dems look stupid. We’re screwed. The first rule of Government spending is: “Why do something right once when we can spend five times as much and screw it up at least three times”? Reference: Rural Electrification Project, 1970’s America energy policy, and Albuquerque’s “Big-I” project.
- A completely screwed up energy plan. No doubt that the reps are going to push for clean coal and nuclear energy as the solutions. Dems are going to push green technology. The Dems will push for alternative energy subsidies and the reps will scream for Tax cuts to the energy companies to “encourage investment”. On this one, I simply cannot comprehend why Exxon, ConocoPhillips or the other major companies can be among the most profitable corporations on the planet yet are so beleaguered with taxes that they need taxpayer money to drill more oil.
- Another screw up with health care.
Oh the possibilities! I’ll skip this one for the sake of brevity.

- Sadly: Another election that allows our leadership to marginalize distinct groups of people, makes us look stupid, keeps the truth buried to keep polls high, and focuses energy on smoke and mirrors instead of solving issues.
I think we deserve better as Americans. But I have to say, we’ve been on the wrong course for about 30 years now. Why can’t we seem to move forward at all anymore as a nation?